Breeding PoolBreeding Pool | Art by Constantin Marin

Dust off your Spacecrafts, people, because we're returning to the final frontier. Now that it's been out for a year, it's time to check on Edge of Eternities. And we're doing it Over/Under style.

In this article series, I try to predict how popular new commanders will become one year after their debut. We got there as of August 1 for EOE, so all deck counts referenced in this article were pulled on that date. Remember, our line is 1,200 decks, and I gave each commander an "Over" or "Under" that line. I also made one Can't-Miss Pick, which was my surest selection of them all. You can review last year's article here, or you can make do with the snippets I'm about to quote throughout. Let's see how I fared.

But First, Some Overall Impressions

Edge of Eternities was better than people realized. And it wasn't the set's fault. I blame it on Final Fantasy.

Last year, you might remember a collective huzzah when FIN dropped, and a collective shrug for EOE. Much of that had to do with timing: Final Fantasy arrived on June 13, followed by Edge of Eternities on August 1. Frankly, a month and a half wasn't nearly enough time to enjoy FIN. Players weren't quite done with the old set when the new one came along.

Another issue: Spider-Man. It arrived just a month later, and its reception was so overwhelmingly negative that I believe that perception skewed Edge, too.

So. Edge of Eternities had the unique misfortune of arriving after a beloved set and before a reviled one. Between those two polarities of positive and negative, it wasn't just overlooked—it was forgotten.

And that's a shame, really. Because I think there's a lot of cool stuff going on in this set. The science-fictional elements fit our game perfectly, both mechanically and artistically. Spacecraft feel like an improvement over Vehicles, and warp is a fun, flexible mechanic I'd love for them to revisit. Furthermore, we got two awesome preconstructed decks, with three of the decks' four new commanders earning quintuple digits.

And let's not forget EOE's rules update, either, which stated that legendary Vehicles and Spacecraft can be commanders. This was...underwhelming, I'll admit. The announcement felt momentous at the time, but in hindsight, it hasn't done as much for the format as you might think. Among the Top 100 commanders on the site, only Shorikai, Genesis EngineShorikai, Genesis Engine and the aforementioned Hearthhull appear on the list.

Alright, that's been a lot of opinion without even checking the facts. Sorry about that. Here are the numbers behind the set:

• Total number of commanders: 22
• Total number of commander decks: 140,104
• Average commander deck count: 6,368
• Most decks: Hearthhull, the WorldseedHearthhull, the Worldseed (28,480 decks)
• Fewest decks: Alpharael, Dreaming AcolyteAlpharael, Dreaming Acolyte (153 decks)

Unlike the Stellar Sights bonus sheet, these numbers are not stellar. That deck total is fewer than Tarkir: Dragonstorm on its first birthday (192,000) and far fewer than Final Fantasy (551,100). In fact, Edge of Eternities only edged out the much-maligned Aetherdrift by a few thousand decks.

So, is this lackluster performance a symptom of Final Fantasy hangover and Spider-Man rock-bottomness, as I've suggested? Or could it simply be a case of boring commanders (we'll get to them soon)? Or, could it be that science-fiction space travel turned out to be too much of a departure from our traditional fantasy settings? If so, I fear for Star Trek...

Whatever the case may be, Edge didn't exactly take off like a rocket ship. Anyhoo, now that we've analyzed the set a bit, let's get into the nitty and the gritty.

My Best Selections

Ah yes, the part where I get to toot my own horn. Let's start here:

Tannuk, Steadfast SecondTannuk, Steadfast Second

Last year's prediction: Can't-Miss Pick

Final deck count: 9,586

Toot-toot. It was a little too obvious to select Ragost, Deft GastronautRagost, Deft Gastronaut for the Can't-Miss Pick, so I went with Tannuk, Steadfast SecondTannuk, Steadfast Second instead. Here's why:

"Warp seems super sweet, especially when doubling up on powerful ETB effects like Siege-Gang CommanderSiege-Gang Commander, Fanatic of MogisFanatic of Mogis, and Trumpeting CarnosaurTrumpeting Carnosaur. You can also cheat in big-mana threats at a steep discount, albeit temporarily. I'm thinking Spawn of ThraxesSpawn of Thraxes, Drakuseth, Maw of FlamesDrakuseth, Maw of Flames, and Balefire DragonBalefire Dragon (just make sure to give them haste)."

I failed my reading comprehension test on this card, because you'll notice that Tannuk's very first line grants everyone haste. And that's not the only error I made. I also proceeded to write...

"Oh, and notice how warp technically counts as casting the creature? That means the Eldrazi titans work with this, too."

Nope. Specifies only "artifact cards and red creature cards," not colorless nonartifact Lovecraftian space monsters. Fortunately, the comment section was super kind and understanding about the whole thing.

Look, I think it's more impressive that I called this card right, despite misreading it not once, but twice. Like hitting a three with my eyes closed. I don't even need to see properly.

Speaking of seeing properly, here's another Over I spotted immediately:

Sami, Wildcat CaptainSami, Wildcat Captain

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 5,077

I forgot to make this joke last year, but "Wildcat Captain" makes Sami sound like the captain of a northeastern American high school lacrosse team. Now that we've gotten that important preamble out of the way, here's last year's evaluation:

"...Brass's BountyBrass's Bounty into pretty much any spell with an X in the corner would likely result in the demise of at least one opponent. Plus, you've got seven artifact lands in these colors to work with, along with countless just-plain artifacts, so netting a significant discount should be trivially easy."

Indeed, Bounty appears in 29% of Sami, Wildcat CaptainSami, Wildcat Captain decks, along with all seven of those artifact lands I mentioned. Seems like a sweet deck—one which I might have to build myself someday. And hey, speaking of commanders I built myself...

Hearthhull, the WorldseedHearthhull, the Worldseed

Last year's prediction: Over

Final deck count: 28,480

That's a whole lotta decks. And remember, that's how many decks Hearthhull had on its one-year anniversary. It's up to 30,647, which is good for 23rd-best all-time. If I could be 23rd-best at anything I'd take it (even pickleball). Anyhoo, here's what I wrote last year:

"Hearthhull goes positively nuts with fetch lands, animation lands, and one of my personal favorites, The Gitrog MonsterThe Gitrog Monster, which conveniently comes in the same precon.

"It even scales with the game, developing into a sizable threat with the potential to one-shot multiple opponents using a single mass land sacrifice effect, such as ScapeshiftScapeshift (if you're lucky enough to have one)."

I am not, but it didn't stop me from buying and building my own version of this deck...which was pretty much like all the others. No offense to this ship or anyone who runs it, but since it's focused on a relatively narrow game action, once you've seen one Hearthhull, the WorldseedHearthhull, the Worldseed deck, you've pretty much seen them all. That said, it's still a super cool commander, and one players will build for years to come.

Alright, enough good vibes. Time to bring the mood down.

My Biggest Blunders

You can't make predictions without getting a lot of them wrong. Just ask Stephen A. Let's start with a close one:

Haliya, Guided by LightHaliya, Guided by Light

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 1,204

Five decks. Five. Decks. That's all that separated me from a few precious percentage points. Whoever you five people are, I just want you to know that your joyous deck building has caused me sorrow (albeit mild). Here's why things went off the rails:

"Whether it was The GafferThe Gaffer, Mangara, the DiplomatMangara, the Diplomat, or Bennie Bracks, ZoologistBennie Bracks, Zoologist, I’ve had a history of overrating mono-white commanders with conditional card draw.

"I will not do that here (which is why this'll probably be the one that finally goes over)."

Called it. Sort of. I suppose the difference I missed is that Haliya, Guided by LightHaliya, Guided by Light fits into the already existing, always popular Lifegain archetype. So does The GafferThe Gaffer, technically, but that old hobbit doesn't fuel himself like Haliya does. A miss—and not my only one.

Alpharael, StonechosenAlpharael, Stonechosen

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 1,237

I'm still surprised by this card. Here's last year's rationale:

"This guy got two cards in this set, yet both kinda stink. Slapping someone for half their life is powerful and easy enough to enable, but such blatantly aggressive commanders often get hated out of the game."

It's difficult to avoid letting your local meta warp your perceptions of commanders in the format's larger ecosystem, yet that's what I did here. You see, my playgroup runs a ton of these cards called "removal spells," and when I cast dangerous creatures such as these, they point these "removal spells" at my stuff, and then my stuff dies. It's infuriating.

In that specific scenario, I suppose the steep ward cost on Alpharael, StonechosenAlpharael, Stonechosen helps. Plus, void is very easy to trigger, especially in the color known for sacrificing. He must be surviving a lot more games than he'd survive in my playgroup.

Now here's one that was not so close:

Syr Vondam, Sunstar ExemplarSyr Vondam, Sunstar Exemplar

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 4,732

I was off on this one. Way off. Let's dig into the archives and see where I went wrong.

"Two mana is a small price to pay for this effect, especially since there are so many free sac outlets floating around these days. Furthermore, exiling multiple creatures is easier than you'd think, especially using mechanics like delve and the newly minted warp."

Huh. This sounds like an Over so far.

"Only problem is..."

Gasp!

"...I'd argue this commander is a tad bland, especially considering we've seen so many similar Orzhov commanders before it. I mean, is this significantly better or more interesting than Judge Magister GabranthJudge Magister Gabranth or Aron, Benalia's RuinAron, Benalia's Ruin?

"I'd argue not—and neither of those commanders went Over."

This is why prediction is more art than science. If I'd had an objective measure to use here, such as a lower mana cost or higher power, it might've made my decision easier. I suppose the real key is the "put into exile" trigger clause, which comes up more often than I'd realized, what with blink spells like EphemerateEphemerate and CloudshiftCloudshift. A miss, and a painful miss, at that.

But the pain doesn't stop there, because I've got one more miss I'd like to mention...

Dawnsire, Sunstar DreadnoughtDawnsire, Sunstar Dreadnought

Last year's prediction: Under

Final deck count: 2,650

I wasn't as far off as I was with Vondam, but still a rough one. Here's why:

"Problem is, this card works best with Stuffy DollStuffy Doll and its various imitators, yet you can't run the imitators with Dawnsire as your commander. The colorless-only nature of this ship makes it far more desirable in the 99 than as the headliner itself."

Two things. First, I underestimated the novelty of blasting creatures for 100 damage, even if they're not blasting players in return. Second—and if you were waiting for an excuse, this is it—Spacecraft were difficult to evaluate. They're mechanically similar to Vehicles, yet in my experience, they played out more like Battles; a little upfront value, and if you turn some creatures sideways, you unlock additional bonuses. I'll have to keep that in mind when they return for Star Trek.

Recap

Correct Picks (16)

1. Mm'menon, the Right HandMm'menon, the Right Hand - Over (3,484 decks)
2. Xu-Ifit, OsteoharmonistXu-Ifit, Osteoharmonist - Over (4,456 decks)
3. Tannuk, Steadfast SecondTannuk, Steadfast Second - Can't-Miss Pick (9,586 decks)
4. Tannuk, Memorial EnsignTannuk, Memorial Ensign - Over (8,548 decks)
5. Dyadrine, Synthesis AmalgamDyadrine, Synthesis Amalgam - Over (2,418 decks)
6. Ragost, Deft GastronautRagost, Deft Gastronaut - Over (17,488 decks)
7. Sami, Wildcat CaptainSami, Wildcat Captain - Over (5,077 decks)
8. Hearthhull, the WorldseedHearthhull, the Worldseed - Over (28,480 decks)
9. Szarel, Genesis ShepherdSzarel, Genesis Shepherd - Over (7,742 decks)
10. Inspirit, Flagship VesselInspirit, Flagship Vessel - Over (12,339 decks)
11. Kilo, Apogee MindKilo, Apogee Mind - Over (17,426 decks)
12. Infinite Guideline StationInfinite Guideline Station - Over (9,622 decks)
13. Alpharael, Dreaming AcolyteAlpharael, Dreaming Acolyte - Under (153 decks)
14. Haliya, Ascendant CadetHaliya, Ascendant Cadet - Under (552 decks)
15. Syr Vondam, the LucentSyr Vondam, the Lucent - Under (315 decks)
16. Sami, Ship's EngineerSami, Ship's Engineer - Under (157 decks)

Incorrect Picks (6)

1. The SeriemaThe Seriema - Over Under (1,085 decks)
2. Haliya, Guided by LightHaliya, Guided by Light - Under Over (1,204 decks)
3. Alpharael, StonechosenAlpharael, Stonechosen - Under Over (1,237 decks)
4. Syr Vondam, Sunstar ExemplarSyr Vondam, Sunstar Exemplar - Under Over (4,732 decks)
5. Mm'menon, Uthros ExileMm'menon, Uthros Exile - Under Over (1,353 decks)
6. Dawnsire, Sunstar DreadnoughtDawnsire, Sunstar Dreadnought - Under Over (2,650 decks)

My Edge of Eternities Correct Prediction Percentage: 73%

My Overall Correct Prediction Percentage: 74%

Uh oh. We're on a steady downward trajectory since a high point of 85% in Aetherdrift. Here's hoping I can rally with our next review set, Spider-Man. Can't wait to read the comments on that one...