Troop of PoniesTroop of Ponies | Art by Christina Kraus

In a hole in the ground there lived a heck of a lot of commanders. And today, we're reviewing them all.

This is The Over/Under, after all, the article series where we predict how popular new commanders will become a year after their release. Our line is 1,200 decks, so each new legend gets an "Over" or "Under" that line. There's also a Can't-Miss Pick, which is my most confident selection of the set.

Ready? Let's get this unexpected party started.

Belladonna TookBelladonna Took

Bilbo's mom has got it goin' on. This is a non-typal Harvestrite HostHarvestrite Host, only with a third trigger that’s arguably better than the rest. I mean, cards like Hop to ItHop to It and Triplicate SpiritsTriplicate Spirits activate all three with ease.

My prediction: Over

Bilbo, Unexpected AdventurerBilbo, Unexpected Adventurer

I’m a sucker for Sun TitanSun Titan, so I'm always into this effect. However, the recent underperformance of Annie Flash, the VeteranAnnie Flash, the Veteran makes me wonder if other players enjoy Sunny-T as much as me. Furthermore, we have an odd release schedule: Bilbo, Unexpected AdventurerBilbo, Unexpected Adventurer and several other commanders appear in a supplementary product not releasing until 2027. Until then, you’ll only find them in Collector Boosters, making them relatively scarce.

My prediction: Under

Bofur, Reliable GuardianBofur, Reliable Guardian

Reliable Under is more like it.

My prediction: Under

Dáin, Lord of the Iron HillsDáin, Lord of the Iron Hills

If Ghostly PrisonGhostly Prison grew stubby legs and a bushy beard, it might look something like this. But one mana's only half of two (mental math, NBD), and Dáin doesn't even deign to protect your planeswalkers.

My prediction: Under

Fíli the PathfinderFíli the Pathfinder

This produces so many Dwarves — but so few exist solely in mono-white.

My prediction: Under

Kíli the ResourcefulKíli the Resourceful

This isn't canon, but if Bruenor BattlehammerBruenor Battlehammer and Sram, Senior EdificerSram, Senior Edificer had a baby, it would be this card. The lack of another color or two might hurt Kíli, but at just two mana, I think he offers enough value to dwarf the competition.

My prediction: Over

Ori, Keeper of SongsOri, Keeper of Songs

If Ori's card is this bad, the song he’s playing must be worse. Rebecca Black’s "Friday," perhaps?

My prediction: Under

Ori, Plate StackerOri, Plate Stacker

I dig Bane of ProgressBane of Progress, but not for seven mana in mono-white in my command zone. And can you imagine the mess if he trips?

My prediction: Under

The Queen of DaleThe Queen of Dale

Yas queen. Well, maybe.

The Queen of DaleThe Queen of Dale is entirely reliant on your opponents' actions, and if I've learned anything from Commander, it's that you can't rely on your opponent to do anything nice. Therefore, I'd expect to see Queen in more 99s than command zones.

My prediction: Under

Bilbo Baggins, BurglarBilbo Baggins, Burglar

I’m into this card for Pauper, but, as I'm sure you've noticed, Commander is a format where we can play more than just commons.

My prediction: Under

Bilbo, LuckwearerBilbo, Luckwearer

If you're running something as dinky as this as your commander, you're going to need all the luck you can get.

My prediction: Under

Bilbo, Thief in the NightBilbo, Thief in the Night

Now this is more like it. This version of Bilbo resembles Prosper, Tome-BoundProsper, Tome-Bound combined with Vega, the WatcherVega, the Watcher. Both are pretty popular, so I suspect Mr. Baggins will be, too.

My prediction: Over

Elrond, Moon-ReaderElrond, Moon-Reader

And I just finished my Loki, God of MischiefLoki, God of Mischief deck!

I could do a straight-up commander swap, because Elrond here might be even better. Not only does he provide cards from tappers like Loki does — he gives them for mana dorks, too. Granted, there aren't many in mono-blue, but Ornithopter of ParadiseOrnithopter of Paradise and the like count.

Problem is, Loki's not trending well: Just 322 decks as I write this. Doesn't bode well for our elven king here.

My prediction: Under

Gandalf, Shadow's FoeGandalf, Shadow's Foe

Shades of Tatyova, Benthic DruidTatyova, Benthic Druid. But seven mana is a lot, and this is another of those weird delayed-release commanders.

My prediction: Under

Gandalf, Wandering WizardGandalf, Wandering Wizard

A three-for-one!

...for eleven mana. I know The Hobbit was published in 1937, but even if Magic existed then, that still would've been a lousy exchange rate.

My prediction: Under

The Lord of the EaglesThe Lord of the Eagles

The real Lord of the Eagles is probably Don Henley, but whatever. I liked this card better when it was Ghalta, Primal HungerGhalta, Primal Hunger.

My prediction: Under

Azog, Moria's RuinAzog, Moria's Ruin

This guy was a scrub in the movies, so we're on-flavor. Plus, a big Army and a free card feels mediocre when we probably invested good mana into the creature we just destroyed, no?

My prediction: Under

Gollum, Riddle MasterGollum, Riddle Master

Might prove strong in formats like Standard and Modern…but who cares about Standard and/or Modern? Seems like a sweet addition to Talion, the Kindly LordTalion, the Kindly Lord decks, but not a standalone commander.

My prediction: Under

Gollum, Silent SlinkerGollum, Silent Slinker

I'd describe my cat as a silent slinker, especially when she sneaks up behind me and trips me when I'm making dinner. Difference is, I still love my cat.

My prediction: Under

Gollum the AbandonedGollum the Abandoned

Abandoned, eh? Abandoned by the entirety of the commander player base?

My prediction: Under

The Master of Lake-townThe Master of Lake-town

MindcrankMindcrank in the command zone sounds sweet, especially when this one draws several cards whenever he dies (it'll happen often, because this character was a jerk).

My prediction: Over

The Sackville-BagginsesThe Sackville-Bagginses

Lobelia and Otho here aren't exactly the stuff of legends. Well, technically, they are legendary, like pretty much every creature these days, but you get my point. Everyone knows Bilbo and Gandalf and Smaug. But these two, despite being low-key threatening, lack name-brand cachet.

My prediction: Under

Balin, LoremasterBalin, Loremaster

This card is great. All you need are a bunch of cards you don't care about in hand, an enduring story turned on, and endless Dwarves to cast, despite being in mono-red. It's that easy!

My prediction: Under

Bombur, Gentle DreamerBombur, Gentle Dreamer

I wonder what he's dreaming about. Probably going Under.

My prediction: See Above

Dáin IronfootDáin Ironfoot

Are we sure this wasn't meant to be an uncommon?

My prediction: Under

Dori, Bearer of FriendsDori, Bearer of Friends

I’m glad he bears his friends, because after reading his card, I’m wondering how Dori's friends bear him.

My prediction: Under

Fíli and Kíli, JoyousFíli and Kíli, Joyous

Although this curves nicely into Argentum ArmorArgentum Armor, mana dorks rarely become popular commanders, no matter how joyous they might be.

My prediction: Under

Gandalf, Goblins' BaneGandalf, Goblins' Bane

An ongoing Reckless ImpulseReckless Impulse plus approximately half of Vivi OrnitierVivi Ornitier is a whole lotta value for a three-mana creature, and he even offers some typal support with the whole Wizard thing. Mono-red wizards didn’t really work in Final Fantasy, but since this set offers fewer commanders to compete with, I'm guessing Gandalf will get there.

My prediction: Over

Gandalf, Spark StarterGandalf, Spark Starter

So Gandalf was just a big Flametongue KavuFlametongue Kavu in disguise all along? Tolkien, you sly dog, you.

My prediction: Under

Glóin the MightyGlóin the Mighty

You know what's really mighty? Glóin sonning his son, Gimli. Otherwise, not interested.

My prediction: Under

Óin the BraveÓin the Brave

Brave? Yes. Good? No.

My prediction: Under

Smaug, the Great CalamitySmaug, the Great Calamity

Seems sick as a Tron payoff in Pauper, but this ain't PaupREC.

My prediction: Under

Smaug the MagnificentSmaug the Magnificent

As a proud member of the 1%, Smaug turns cards like Brass's BountyBrass's Bounty into pseudo-FireballFireballs. He's also a Dragon (obviously), which is Commander's most popular creature type (obviously). The free Treasure each turn is probably contributing to inflation, but otherwise, I love this card.

My prediction: Over

Thorin, Company's LeaderThorin, Company's Leader

Ten's a lot, even with two Treasures per hit. Plus, I continue to think players will prefer Dwarf commanders that offer both red and white, not just one or the other.

My prediction: Under

Thorin, Mountain-kingThorin, Mountain-king

This is yet another way to cheat the equip cost of Colossus HammerColossus Hammer, and obliterate an opposing creature while you’re at it. Still, we’ve gotten so many equipment commanders I suspect this one will be drowned out, especially since he’s missing a color or two, compared to other popular options.

My prediction: Under

Beorn, Reluctant HostBeorn, Reluctant Host

Almost this exact same card appeared in Wilds of Eldraine as Beanstalk WurmBeanstalk Wurm. You barely wanted that card in your Draft deck, let alone as your commander.

My prediction: Under

Beorn the FierceBeorn the Fierce

I might’ve once poo-pooed this ursine dude, but ever since the runaway success of Ayula, Queen Among BearsAyula, Queen Among Bears, I'm giving Bears their proper props.

My prediction: Over

Bilbo, Fellow ConspiratorBilbo, Fellow Conspirator

Bilbo essentially gets paid for eating Food, which must mean he's a food critic. Problem is, in mono-green, you're missing some sick Food payoffs from black. Better destined for the 99 than the command zone, I'd wager.

My prediction: Under

Galion, Elvenking's ButlerGalion, Elvenking's Butler

Is 2026 the year of the butler? First we had Frog ButlerFrog Butler in TMT, then Jarvis, Earth's Mightiest ButlerJarvis, Earth's Mightiest Butler in MSH, and now this. What’s next, a color-shifted planeswalking Ob Nixilis, the Butler in Reality Fracture?

Probably not. And will this card get anywhere close to over?

My prediction: Probably Not

Radagast of RhosgobelRadagast of Rhosgobel

Never heard of Rhosgobel, but it must border Value Town. I mean, Radagast looks not unlike Prophet of KruphixProphet of Kruphix if you squint really, really hard and ignore the beard.

My prediction: Over

The Notary HobbitsThe Notary Hobbits

You wouldn’t think Hobbits and Eldrazi would get along, but they certainly do in this deck. However, something tells me most players aren't dying to build around notaries.

My prediction: Under

Bard, Heir of GirionBard, Heir of Girion

There are no monkeys in Middle-earth, if memory serves, but there are monkey wrenches, like this one. This Collector-Boosters-only-at-least-for-a-little-while release has me perplexed, and Bard another of them. Like, he’s clearly impactful. But will there be enough initial interest, despite several months of hard-to-get status?

My prediction: An Over-That-Lacks-Confidence

Bard, King of DaleBard, King of Dale

Much more confident with this one. Teferi's Ageless InsightTeferi's Ageless Insight appears in 5% of all Commander decks. Anointed ProcessionAnointed Procession appears in almost double that. Put them together and you've got...

My prediction: Can't-Miss Pick

Bard the BowmanBard the Bowman

For a guy who made a career off one lucky shot, Bard's sure got a lot of cards. This is by far the worst of them.

My prediction: Under

Bolg, Erebor's ReckoningBolg, Erebor's Reckoning

If Elesh Norn, Grand CenobiteElesh Norn, Grand Cenobite has taught us anything, it's that global minus effects are far nastier than they look. Bolg here doesn't provide a static status like Norn, but at one less mana with one additional color—not to mention typal synergy with a popular type—I think he'll get there.

My prediction: Over

Bolg of the NorthBolg of the North

The North will not remember this one.

My prediction: Under

Great Goblin, Foul-HeartedGreat Goblin, Foul-Hearted

Great Goblin? More like Mediocre Goblin.

My prediction: Under

Smaug the ImpenetrableSmaug the Impenetrable

I just impulse-bought Smaug's scene box, so only 1,999 decks to go. This big fella offers near-infinite pings with PyrohemiaPyrohemia and PestilencePestilence, not to mention Treasure galore with Blasphemous ActBlasphemous Act. My Jared Carthalion, True HeirJared Carthalion, True Heir + Stuffy DollStuffy Doll deck might just be getting an overhaul.

My prediction: Over

Smaug, Wicked WormSmaug, Wicked Worm

Every Commander deck wants ramp and card advantage, so nice to see this wicked worm (wurm?) offering both. Even if his ETB yields little Treasure itself, there's plenty more in these colors to make him a worthwhile commander.

My prediction: Over

The Great GoblinThe Great Goblin

That counters clause is custom-built for the Goblins from Lorwyn Eclipsed, and the impulse draw effect works with all the rest. Put them together and you've got...

My prediction: An Easy Over

Chief of the WildsChief of the Wilds

[Insert disclaimer about Collector Booster nonsense here.]

That said, this card's kinda sweet. Like, imagine casting Chief of the WildsChief of the Wilds into Howl of the Night PackHowl of the Night Pack. Furthermore, there are more Wolves in Magic than you'd think, largely due to their cross-synergies with Werewolves from all those Innistrad sets.

My prediction: Over

The Chief WargThe Chief Warg

This Chief is about as good as last year's Kansas City Chiefs.

My prediction: Under

Tom, Bert, and WilliamTom, Bert, and William

I always wondered why this pack of trolls had human names. This card doesn’t answer my question, but it does provide solid flavor. (Get it? Solid? Like rock? ROFL.) And considering their color identity and oodles of card-draw, they remind me of Jenova, Ancient CalamityJenova, Ancient Calamity, who's very popular. Why not these three stooges, too?

My prediction: Over

Bifur, Melodic RiderBifur, Melodic Rider

If that's a recorder and he's playing "Hot Crossed Buns," I'm out.

My prediction: Under

Dáin of the Ancient HallsDáin of the Ancient Halls

In the movie he rode a pig. So where's my pig?

Missing oinker notwithstanding, this dude's kinda sweet, albeit straightforward. He'll be a real litmus test for the popularity of Dwarves, but considering they've been in the game since Alpha, I think they'll make it work.

My prediction: Over

Dwalin, WeaponmasterDwalin, Weaponmaster

The flavor text on this card is oddly disconnected from the character, which is a minor quibble, I'll grant. But here's a bigger quibble: Hone counters. I just don't see them becoming popular enough to move a card like Dwalin into the hallowed halls of the 1,200.

My prediction: Under

Nori, Teller of TalesNori, Teller of Tales

Here's a tale: Under.

Thorin, King of Durin's FolkThorin, King of Durin's Folk

Remember what I wrote about Dáin of the Ancient HallsDáin of the Ancient Halls? Same goes here, too.

My prediction: Over

Thorin OakenshieldThorin Oakenshield

Fun fact: storied isn't a token or emblem — it's a "player designation." That's the only halfway interesting thing I have to say about this card.

My prediction: Under

Thranduil, Sindarin LiegeThranduil, Sindarin Liege

This offers significant value for an uncommon, and since Elves are so popular (second only to Dragons), I think Thranduil could get there.

My prediction: Over

Thranduil the StrategistThranduil the Strategist

Elves love ramping. Elves love multiplying. This does both.

My prediction: Over

Gandalf, Party GuestGandalf, Party Guest

This party must be a rager, because Gandalf is getting after it. At baseline he provides a free two-drop each turn, and when more legendary Wizards arrive, things get rowdy.

My prediction: The Cops Will Be Called (Also, Over)

Thranduil, the ElvenkingThranduil, the Elvenking

We round out this article with what might become this set's most popular commander. Like The Great GoblinThe Great Goblin, Thranduil works perfectly with his typal counterparts from Lorwyn Eclipsed. He even fuels himself with a card advantage trigger, and potentially supports some infinite combos, thanks to his Necrotic OozeNecrotic Ooze-style effect.

My prediction: Over

Recap

Over (22)

1. Belladonna TookBelladonna Took
2. Kíli the ResourcefulKíli the Resourceful
3. Bilbo, Thief in the NightBilbo, Thief in the Night
4. The Master of Lake-townThe Master of Lake-town
5. Gandalf, Goblins' BaneGandalf, Goblins' Bane
6. Beorn the FierceBeorn the Fierce
7. Bard, Heir of GirionBard, Heir of Girion
8. Bard, King of DaleBard, King of Dale (Can't-Miss Pick)
9. Bolg, Erebor's ReckoningBolg, Erebor's Reckoning
10. Smaug the ImpenetrableSmaug the Impenetrable
11. Smaug, Wicked WormSmaug, Wicked Worm
12. Smaug the MagnificentSmaug the Magnificent
13. The Great GoblinThe Great Goblin
14. Chief of the WildsChief of the Wilds
15. Tom, Bert, and WilliamTom, Bert, and William
16. Dáin of the Ancient HallsDáin of the Ancient Halls
17. Thorin, King of Durin's FolkThorin, King of Durin's Folk
18. Thranduil, Sindarin LiegeThranduil, Sindarin Liege
19. Thranduil the StrategistThranduil the Strategist
20. Radagast of RhosgobelRadagast of Rhosgobel
21. Gandalf, Party GuestGandalf, Party Guest
22. Thranduil, the ElvenkingThranduil, the Elvenking

Under (41)

1. Bilbo, Unexpected AdventurerBilbo, Unexpected Adventurer
2. Bofur, Reliable GuardianBofur, Reliable Guardian
3. Dáin, Lord of the Iron HillsDáin, Lord of the Iron Hills
4. Fíli the PathfinderFíli the Pathfinder
5. Ori, Keeper of SongsOri, Keeper of Songs
6. Ori, Plate StackerOri, Plate Stacker
7. The Queen of DaleThe Queen of Dale
8. Bilbo Baggins, BurglarBilbo Baggins, Burglar
9. Bilbo, LuckwearerBilbo, Luckwearer
10. Elrond, Moon-ReaderElrond, Moon-Reader
11. Gandalf, Shadow's FoeGandalf, Shadow's Foe
12. Gandalf, Wandering WizardGandalf, Wandering Wizard
13. The Lord of the EaglesThe Lord of the Eagles
14. Azog, Moria's RuinAzog, Moria's Ruin
15. Gollum, Riddle MasterGollum, Riddle Master
16. Gollum, Silent SlinkerGollum, Silent Slinker
17. Gollum the AbandonedGollum the Abandoned
18. The Sackville-BagginsesThe Sackville-Bagginses
19. Balin, LoremasterBalin, Loremaster
20. Bombur, Gentle DreamerBombur, Gentle Dreamer
21. Dáin IronfootDáin Ironfoot
22. Dori, Bearer of FriendsDori, Bearer of Friends
23. Fíli and Kíli, JoyousFíli and Kíli, Joyous
24. Gandalf, Spark StarterGandalf, Spark Starter
25. Glóin the MightyGlóin the Mighty
26. Óin the BraveÓin the Brave
27. Smaug, the Great CalamitySmaug, the Great Calamity
28. Thorin, Company's LeaderThorin, Company's Leader
29. Thorin, Mountain-kingThorin, Mountain-king
30. Beorn, Reluctant HostBeorn, Reluctant Host
31. Bilbo, Fellow ConspiratorBilbo, Fellow Conspirator
32. Galion, Elvenking's ButlerGalion, Elvenking's Butler
33. The Notary HobbitsThe Notary Hobbits
34. Bard the BowmanBard the Bowman
35. Bolg of the NorthBolg of the North
36. Great Goblin, Foul-HeartedGreat Goblin, Foul-Hearted
37. The Chief WargThe Chief Warg
38. Bifur, Melodic RiderBifur, Melodic Rider
39. Dwalin, WeaponmasterDwalin, Weaponmaster
40. Nori, Teller of TalesNori, Teller of Tales
41. Thorin OakenshieldThorin Oakenshield

Can't wait to play this set. I expect it'll be quite the adventure. Until next time...