Smaug the Impenetrable (Commander) - Upgraded Burn

Smaug the Impenetrable
Rank #436
91decks
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Kyle Massa
Aug 19, 2026
Kyle Massa
The Over/Under: Predicting the Popularity of The Hobbit Commanders
Which of The Hobbit's sixty-three new commanders will crack 1,200 decks in a year? Over/Under predictions for every legend in the set.
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Smaug the Magnificent
85%inclusion77 decks91 decks
7.8xlift
Smaug, Wicked Worm
79%inclusion66 decks84 decks
7.2xlift
Dragon-Cursed Halls
73%inclusion66 decks91 decks
10xlift
Dragon's Desire
44%inclusion40 decks91 decks
10xlift
Draconic Visitor
33%inclusion15 decks46 decks
6.7xlift
Top Cards
Blasphemous Act
97%inclusion88 decks91 decks
1.7xlift
Self-Destruct
87%inclusion79 decks91 decks
12xlift
Mayhem Devil
87%inclusion79 decks91 decks
3.3xlift
Cut Propulsion
84%inclusion76 decks91 decks
13xlift
Mirkwood Bats
84%inclusion76 decks91 decks
5.1xlift
Pain for All
81%inclusion74 decks91 decks
10xlift
Reckless Fireweaver
80%inclusion73 decks91 decks
5.7xlift
Goldspan Dragon
78%inclusion71 decks91 decks
5.2xlift
Dark Ritual
74%inclusion67 decks91 decks
1.2xlift
Professional Face-Breaker
71%inclusion65 decks91 decks
3.5xlift
High Lift Cards
Urza's Armor
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
14xlift
Dizzying Gaze
7.7%inclusion7 decks91 decks
14xlift
Pariah's Shield
67%inclusion61 decks91 decks
13xlift
Dawnsire, Sunstar Dreadnought
65%inclusion59 decks91 decks
13xlift
Fiendlash
31%inclusion28 decks91 decks
13xlift
Expedited Inheritance
14%inclusion13 decks91 decks
13xlift
Blazing Sunsteel
43%inclusion39 decks91 decks
13xlift
Simulacrum
18%inclusion16 decks91 decks
12xlift
Shivan Meteor
7.7%inclusion7 decks91 decks
12xlift
Wrathful Red Dragon
44%inclusion40 decks91 decks
12xlift
Creatures
Hellkite Tyrant
70%inclusion64 decks91 decks
9.0xlift
Weftstalker Ardent
65%inclusion59 decks91 decks
5.1xlift
Xorn
63%inclusion57 decks91 decks
4.9xlift
Nadier's Nightblade
56%inclusion51 decks91 decks
5.2xlift
Marionette Apprentice
55%inclusion50 decks91 decks
4.2xlift
Academy Manufactor
53%inclusion48 decks91 decks
5.0xlift
Crime Novelist
45%inclusion41 decks91 decks
4.9xlift
Ingenious Artillerist
44%inclusion40 decks91 decks
6.3xlift
Brash Taunter
37%inclusion34 decks91 decks
2.5xlift
Magda, Brazen Outlaw
36%inclusion33 decks91 decks
5.4xlift
Hexing Squelcher
36%inclusion33 decks91 decks
1.8xlift
Cavern-Hoard Dragon
34%inclusion31 decks91 decks
5.5xlift
The Sackville-Bagginses
33%inclusion28 decks86 decks
6.7xlift
Ancient Copper Dragon
32%inclusion29 decks91 decks
5.4xlift
Dragonspeaker Shaman
29%inclusion26 decks91 decks
10xlift
Juri, Master of the Revue
27%inclusion25 decks91 decks
5.6xlift
Disciple of the Vault
27%inclusion25 decks91 decks
5.5xlift
Rivaz of the Claw
27%inclusion25 decks91 decks
10xlift
Knuckles the Echidna
23%inclusion21 decks91 decks
5.6xlift
Grim Hireling
20%inclusion18 decks91 decks
2.0xlift
Dragonlord's Servant
20%inclusion18 decks91 decks
9.4xlift
Storm-Kiln Artist
19%inclusion17 decks91 decks
0.8xlift
Terror of the Peaks
19%inclusion17 decks91 decks
3.2xlift
Orcish Bowmasters
15%inclusion14 decks91 decks
0.9xlift
Decadent Dragon
14%inclusion13 decks91 decks
3.3xlift
Mastermind Plum
13%inclusion12 decks91 decks
4.3xlift
Twinflame Tyrant
12%inclusion11 decks91 decks
1.2xlift
Havoc Jester
12%inclusion11 decks91 decks
11xlift
Roaming Throne
11%inclusion10 decks91 decks
0.9xlift
Generous Plunderer
11%inclusion10 decks91 decks
2.2xlift
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer
10%inclusion9 decks91 decks
1.1xlift
Barbed Servitor
10%inclusion9 decks91 decks
4.7xlift
Gadrak, the Crown-Scourge
8.8%inclusion8 decks91 decks
6.0xlift
Atsushi, the Blazing Sky
8.8%inclusion8 decks91 decks
3.4xlift
Magda, the Hoardmaster
8.8%inclusion8 decks91 decks
3.5xlift
Marionette Master
7.7%inclusion7 decks91 decks
1.5xlift
Blazing Firesinger
7.7%inclusion7 decks91 decks
5.3xlift
Goldlust Triad
6.6%inclusion6 decks91 decks
2.1xlift
Kellogg, Dangerous Mind
6.6%inclusion6 decks91 decks
2.4xlift
Hedron Detonator
6.6%inclusion6 decks91 decks
9.0xlift
Ganax, Astral Hunter
6.6%inclusion6 decks91 decks
5.1xlift
Hellkite Courser
6.6%inclusion6 decks91 decks
9.0xlift
Swashbuckler Extraordinaire
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
4.5xlift
Bonehoard Dracosaur
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
1.3xlift
Hellkite Charger
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
7.5xlift
Braids, Arisen Nightmare
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
0.9xlift
Screaming Nemesis
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
0.7xlift
Craterclaw Colossus
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
8.5xlift
Instants
Lightning Bolt
70%inclusion64 decks91 decks
2.0xlift
Big Score
65%inclusion59 decks91 decks
2.2xlift
Deadly Dispute
59%inclusion54 decks91 decks
1.9xlift
Unexpected Windfall
52%inclusion47 decks91 decks
3.0xlift
Abrade
49%inclusion45 decks91 decks
1.8xlift
Chaos Warp
48%inclusion44 decks91 decks
1.0xlift
Seething Song
47%inclusion43 decks91 decks
2.2xlift
Fire Covenant
45%inclusion41 decks91 decks
3.9xlift
Deflecting Swat
43%inclusion39 decks91 decks
1.4xlift
Bolt Bend
42%inclusion38 decks91 decks
2.2xlift
Return the Favor
33%inclusion30 decks91 decks
1.5xlift
Redirect Lightning
26%inclusion24 decks91 decks
1.3xlift
Deadly Rollick
24%inclusion22 decks91 decks
0.9xlift
Untimely Malfunction
24%inclusion22 decks91 decks
0.8xlift
Demand Answers
24%inclusion22 decks91 decks
1.4xlift
Terminate
22%inclusion20 decks91 decks
0.6xlift
Valakut Awakening
21%inclusion19 decks91 decks
1.3xlift
The Last Agni Kai
21%inclusion19 decks91 decks
3.4xlift
Fell the Profane
20%inclusion18 decks91 decks
0.9xlift
Pyretic Ritual
20%inclusion18 decks91 decks
1.5xlift
Imp's Mischief
15%inclusion14 decks91 decks
1.0xlift
Rakdos Charm
15%inclusion14 decks91 decks
0.3xlift
Starstorm
13%inclusion12 decks91 decks
9.0xlift
Galvanic Blast
13%inclusion12 decks91 decks
9.0xlift
Tibalt's Trickery
12%inclusion11 decks91 decks
0.7xlift
Bedevil
12%inclusion11 decks91 decks
0.4xlift
Withering Torment
12%inclusion11 decks91 decks
0.4xlift
Thrill of Possibility
10%inclusion9 decks91 decks
0.5xlift
Soul's Fire
10%inclusion9 decks91 decks
5.3xlift
Desperate Ritual
8.8%inclusion8 decks91 decks
1.3xlift
Cabal Ritual
8.8%inclusion8 decks91 decks
1.1xlift
Comet Storm
8.8%inclusion8 decks91 decks
2.9xlift
Arcbond
7.7%inclusion7 decks91 decks
4.7xlift
Red Elemental Blast
7.7%inclusion7 decks91 decks
1.2xlift
Fire Magic
7.7%inclusion7 decks91 decks
2.7xlift
Vision of Love
7.7%inclusion7 decks91 decks
2.9xlift
Stinging Study
6.6%inclusion6 decks91 decks
4.1xlift
Electrodominance
6.6%inclusion6 decks91 decks
2.2xlift
Costly Plunder
6.6%inclusion6 decks91 decks
3.3xlift
Essence Burn
6.5%inclusion3 decks46 decks
10xlift
Eviscerator's Insight
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
2.3xlift
Flick a Coin
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
2.6xlift
Malakir Rebirth
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
0.2xlift
Lightning Strike
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
2.6xlift
Sorceries
Chain Reaction
63%inclusion57 decks91 decks
7.6xlift
Star of Extinction
62%inclusion56 decks91 decks
10xlift
Chain Lightning
62%inclusion56 decks91 decks
11xlift
Exsanguinate
45%inclusion41 decks91 decks
2.7xlift
Jeska's Will
44%inclusion40 decks91 decks
1.1xlift
Crackle with Power
41%inclusion37 decks91 decks
5.0xlift
Mana Geyser
35%inclusion32 decks91 decks
1.5xlift
Night's Whisper
34%inclusion31 decks91 decks
1.0xlift
Torment of Hailfire
30%inclusion27 decks91 decks
3.7xlift
Faithless Looting
26%inclusion24 decks91 decks
0.9xlift
Feed the Swarm
24%inclusion22 decks91 decks
0.5xlift
Demonic Tutor
22%inclusion20 decks91 decks
1.4xlift
Reckless Endeavor
22%inclusion20 decks91 decks
7.3xlift
Desolation of Smaug
21%inclusion19 decks91 decks
8.6xlift
Seize the Spoils
20%inclusion18 decks91 decks
1.9xlift
Flame Slash
19%inclusion17 decks91 decks
10xlift
Vandalblast
16%inclusion15 decks91 decks
0.5xlift
Diabolic Tutor
15%inclusion14 decks91 decks
2.9xlift
Reanimate
14%inclusion13 decks91 decks
0.7xlift
Sign in Blood
14%inclusion13 decks91 decks
0.5xlift
Read the Bones
10%inclusion9 decks91 decks
0.8xlift
Pirate's Pillage
10%inclusion9 decks91 decks
3.1xlift
Hell to Pay
7.7%inclusion7 decks91 decks
3.3xlift
Geosurge
6.6%inclusion6 decks91 decks
9.0xlift
Blood Money
6.6%inclusion6 decks91 decks
2.5xlift
Insatiable Avarice
6.6%inclusion6 decks91 decks
1.0xlift
Jaya's Immolating Inferno
6.6%inclusion6 decks91 decks
2.4xlift
Hex Magic
6.6%inclusion6 decks91 decks
0.9xlift
Reprocess
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
7.5xlift
Damnable Pact
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
5.6xlift
Brass's Bounty
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
2.5xlift
Shatterskull Smashing
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
1.0xlift
Chandra's Ignition
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
0.5xlift
Decorum Dissertation
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
0.8xlift
Utility Artifacts
Swiftfoot Boots
43%inclusion39 decks91 decks
1.3xlift
Ruby Medallion
40%inclusion36 decks91 decks
1.6xlift
Requiem Monolith
38%inclusion35 decks91 decks
9.5xlift
The One Ring
31%inclusion28 decks91 decks
3.4xlift
The Reaver Cleaver
25%inclusion23 decks91 decks
3.9xlift
Idol of Oblivion
20%inclusion18 decks91 decks
4.6xlift
Jet Medallion
12%inclusion11 decks91 decks
1.1xlift
Basilisk Collar
12%inclusion11 decks91 decks
0.8xlift
My Precious
12%inclusion11 decks91 decks
4.1xlift
Wayfarer's Bauble
11%inclusion10 decks91 decks
1.1xlift
The Fire Crystal
10%inclusion9 decks91 decks
1.5xlift
Lightning Greaves
8.8%inclusion8 decks91 decks
0.2xlift
Orcrist, Goblin-cleaver
8.0%inclusion7 decks88 decks
5.4xlift
Cranial Plating
7.7%inclusion7 decks91 decks
6.3xlift
Shadowspear
7.7%inclusion7 decks91 decks
1.0xlift
Cranial Ram
6.6%inclusion6 decks91 decks
7.4xlift
Mjölnir, Hammer of Thor
6.6%inclusion6 decks91 decks
4.8xlift
Wishclaw Talisman
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
1.9xlift
Enchantments
Pyrohemia
63%inclusion57 decks91 decks
7.7xlift
Pestilence
60%inclusion55 decks91 decks
8.7xlift
Revel in Riches
56%inclusion51 decks91 decks
6.4xlift
Black Market Connections
51%inclusion46 decks91 decks
1.8xlift
Rain of Riches
51%inclusion46 decks91 decks
5.6xlift
Alchemist's Talent
48%inclusion44 decks91 decks
6.0xlift
The Misty Mountains Cold
31%inclusion28 decks90 decks
8.5xlift
Spiteful Banditry
27%inclusion25 decks91 decks
5.4xlift
Phyrexian Arena
26%inclusion24 decks91 decks
1.1xlift
There and Back Again
24%inclusion22 decks91 decks
9.0xlift
Agent of the Iron Throne
18%inclusion16 decks91 decks
5.4xlift
Fiery Emancipation
18%inclusion16 decks91 decks
1.6xlift
Descent into Avernus
16%inclusion15 decks91 decks
0.9xlift
City on Fire
8.8%inclusion8 decks91 decks
0.7xlift
Curse of Opulence
7.7%inclusion7 decks91 decks
1.3xlift
Warstorm Surge
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
2.8xlift
Utility Lands
Bojuka Bog
49%inclusion45 decks91 decks
1.2xlift
Treasure Vault
44%inclusion40 decks91 decks
5.1xlift
Mines of Moria
34%inclusion31 decks91 decks
5.8xlift
Reliquary Tower
27%inclusion25 decks91 decks
1.5xlift
Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
22%inclusion20 decks91 decks
1.2xlift
Rogue's Passage
22%inclusion20 decks91 decks
1.7xlift
Ancient Tomb
16%inclusion15 decks91 decks
2.3xlift
Command Beacon
13%inclusion12 decks91 decks
1.5xlift
Great Furnace
13%inclusion12 decks91 decks
2.5xlift
War Room
12%inclusion11 decks91 decks
2.9xlift
Witch's Clinic
11%inclusion10 decks91 decks
0.7xlift
Urza's Saga
10%inclusion9 decks91 decks
1.8xlift
Arena of Glory
10%inclusion9 decks91 decks
0.8xlift
Vault of Whispers
8.8%inclusion8 decks91 decks
1.8xlift
Minas Morgul, Dark Fortress
8.8%inclusion8 decks91 decks
4.5xlift
Temple of the False God
8.8%inclusion8 decks91 decks
1.3xlift
The Lonely Mountain
8.8%inclusion8 decks91 decks
11xlift
Spinerock Knoll
7.7%inclusion7 decks91 decks
0.6xlift
Cabal Coffers
6.6%inclusion6 decks91 decks
1.0xlift
Takenuma, Abandoned Mire
6.6%inclusion6 decks91 decks
0.7xlift
Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
3.2xlift
Mana Artifacts
Sol Ring
99%inclusion90 decks91 decks
1.1xlift
Arcane Signet
92%inclusion84 decks91 decks
1.1xlift
Talisman of Indulgence
64%inclusion58 decks91 decks
0.9xlift
Rakdos Signet
45%inclusion41 decks91 decks
0.8xlift
Fellwar Stone
37%inclusion34 decks91 decks
1.0xlift
Mind Stone
20%inclusion18 decks91 decks
0.9xlift
Thought Vessel
19%inclusion17 decks91 decks
0.9xlift
Thran Dynamo
14%inclusion13 decks91 decks
4.3xlift
Dragon's Hoard
11%inclusion10 decks91 decks
8.0xlift
Exploding Barrel
11%inclusion10 decks91 decks
11xlift
Glittering Stockpile
7.7%inclusion7 decks91 decks
3.0xlift
Commander's Sphere
6.6%inclusion6 decks91 decks
1.4xlift
Liquimetal Torque
6.6%inclusion6 decks91 decks
1.4xlift
Cursed Mirror
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
0.6xlift
Mox Jasper
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
14xlift
Arc Reactor
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
10xlift
Lands
Mountain
98%inclusion89 decks91 decks
1.0xlift
Command Tower
96%inclusion87 decks91 decks
1.0xlift
Swamp
96%inclusion87 decks91 decks
1.0xlift
Dragonskull Summit
89%inclusion81 decks91 decks
1.1xlift
Smoldering Marsh
79%inclusion72 decks91 decks
1.1xlift
Blood Crypt
74%inclusion67 decks91 decks
1.1xlift
Luxury Suite
65%inclusion59 decks91 decks
1.2xlift
Sulfurous Springs
65%inclusion59 decks91 decks
0.9xlift
Haunted Ridge
58%inclusion53 decks91 decks
1.1xlift
Blazemire Verge
55%inclusion50 decks91 decks
1.1xlift
Bloodstained Mire
53%inclusion48 decks91 decks
1.2xlift
Foreboding Ruins
52%inclusion47 decks91 decks
1.0xlift
Tainted Peak
46%inclusion42 decks91 decks
0.9xlift
Graven Cairns
44%inclusion40 decks91 decks
0.9xlift
Raucous Theater
32%inclusion29 decks91 decks
1.1xlift
Exotic Orchard
32%inclusion29 decks91 decks
0.9xlift
Dark Fortress
32%inclusion29 decks91 decks
1.5xlift
Shadowblood Ridge
31%inclusion28 decks91 decks
0.7xlift
Blightstep Pathway
29%inclusion26 decks91 decks
0.9xlift
Mount Doom
26%inclusion24 decks91 decks
1.1xlift
Fabled Passage
25%inclusion23 decks91 decks
1.6xlift
Rakdos Carnarium
22%inclusion20 decks91 decks
0.8xlift
Valakut Awakening
21%inclusion19 decks91 decks
1.3xlift
Fell the Profane
20%inclusion18 decks91 decks
0.9xlift
Cavern of Souls
20%inclusion18 decks91 decks
2.9xlift
Path of Ancestry
16%inclusion15 decks91 decks
1.0xlift
Canyon Slough
14%inclusion13 decks91 decks
0.7xlift
Blackcleave Cliffs
14%inclusion13 decks91 decks
0.5xlift
Temple of Malice
14%inclusion13 decks91 decks
0.6xlift
Reflecting Pool
13%inclusion12 decks91 decks
2.5xlift
Badlands
12%inclusion11 decks91 decks
0.9xlift
Evolving Wilds
8.8%inclusion8 decks91 decks
0.6xlift
Bloodfell Caves
7.7%inclusion7 decks91 decks
0.6xlift
Maelstrom of the Spirit Dragon
6.6%inclusion6 decks91 decks
5.8xlift
Myriad Landscape
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
0.6xlift
Shatterskull Smashing
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
1.0xlift
Malakir Rebirth
5.5%inclusion5 decks91 decks
0.2xlift
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